The [s]First[/s] [s]Only[/s] Second Trump term

[Leisher]

MAGA followers really buy the fit Trump memes

This made me laugh. Holy shit, there probably are some absolute dipshits out there who think Trump is ripped because of internet memes.

I don't think there's been a president since Teddy Roosevelt who could hold their own in a fist fight. (IN OFFICE...who they were prior to that would be a different conversation) Clinton was probably the closest, although I still think he'd be more a danger to steal your woman. Ha! Obama and W were both younger but wimpy.

[TheCatt]

W + Obama were decently fit people. Granted, more jogging fit. But Obama played pick up ball. They'd certainly kick Trump's ass.

[Leisher]

W + Obama were decently fit people. Granted, more jogging fit. But Obama played pick up ball. They'd certainly kick Trump's ass.

No argument. They just couldn't kick my ass.

[TheCatt]

In April, the consumer price index rose 0.6%, putting the annual inflation rate at 3.8%, according to the Bureau of Labor Statistics. While monthly move for headline inflation was in line with expectations, economists polled by Dow Jones were calling for a gain of 3.7% from a year earlier. That annual inflation rate was the highest since May 2023.

More shitty economic news. Thanks, Trump.

[Leisher]

He ain't helping, but I don't think you 1%ers understand just how bad the economy really is right now. And honestly, has been since 2020.

[TheCatt]

He ain't helping, but I don't think you 1%ers understand just how bad the economy really is right now. And honestly, has been since 2020.

The producer price index rose a seasonally adjusted 1.4% for the month, much higher than the 0.5% Dow Jones consensus forecast and the upwardly revised 0.7% March increase.

How bad is it? Cuz every plane is full, Vegas was packed, restaurants are jammed, etc, etc.

[Leisher]

It's a lot worse than most realize:
-57-69% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.
-U.S. household debt is at a record high of $18.8T.
-30% of U.S. households receive some form of government assistance.
-30% of people are underwater on their car loans.
-2.1% are underwater on their home loans (lower than I thought it would be)
-However, the housing market is completely frozen because prices and interest rates are too high. It's been said by housing experts that not only is it extremely difficult for new buyers to afford a home, but many homeowners cannot afford to sell.
-Almost 40% of CC holders have maxed out or come close to maxing out their cards.
-56% of Gen Z and 66% of Millennials to rely on credit cards to make ends meet.
-Grocery prices are at record highs and rising.
-COL continues to rise while wages continue to stagnate and jobs disappear.

I think a lot of the travel to Vegas is corporate, which means the travelers aren't the ones paying for it. I would wager that if all conventions ended in Vegas and moved to Miami or something, Vegas would receive 10% of their current visitors.

As for the planes being full, that's mostly airlines being efficient, plus fewer airline options. I don't think that's a good gauge on the economy's health.

Despite him being part of the problem, these issues are not just because of Trump. It's been bad policies and greed for decades that is causing this. Yes, some people still have it good, but others, particularly newer generations cannot afford shit. The number of haves has been dropping and the number of havenots has been steadily rising. The more we ignore it, the more they're going to vote for socialism, and we're all fucked.

[TheCatt]

-57-69% of Americans are living paycheck to paycheck.

I'm skeptical until the phrase is given a definitive meaning:

U.S. household debt is at a record high of $18.8T.

Nominal, or constant year dollar terms? That sounds nominal. How does it relate to household wealth/income relative to historical conditions?

30% of people are underwater on their car loans.

These people are dummies, unless it's that year 1/2 thing. (depreciation faster than amortization). I was reading an article about negative equity in car loans, and the lenders were surprisingly unworried, because, while true, debt burden (in terms of monthly payments) was actually not at all time highs for consumers.

56% of Gen Z and 66% of Millennials to rely on credit cards to make ends meet.

They need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.

Grocery prices are at record highs and rising.

Thanks, Trump!

COL continues to rise while wages continue to stagnate and jobs disappear.

For the past 3 years, wage growth has been more than COL growth every single month. Until last month.

Trump certainly isn't helping (Iran War in particular, tariffs as well).

I would wager that if all conventions ended in Vegas and moved to Miami or something, Vegas would receive 10% of their current visitors.

They're still there, and paying $$$ for everything.

[TheCatt]

The community notes are nice.

[Leisher]

Ok Marie.

Nominal, or constant year dollar terms? That sounds nominal. How does it relate to household wealth/income relative to historical conditions?

Not clear, but two of the biggest driving factors are mortgages (the housing market is a disaster) and student loans (Hooray for societal lies! "Everyone must go to college").

These people are dummies

No argument, but people will always be dummies. No fixing that (1).

They need to pull themselves up by their bootstraps.

I don't disagree with this either. I think younger generations have been the most coddled in history. HOWEVER...I do concede that they're also walking into a shit situation. They were lied to about college, jobs are disappearing, the COL is insane and climbing, and they were raised by two working parent households that never needed to exist. The last point there has to do with how their lives and expectations were incorrectly shaped. For example: they were taught more by devices than lecturing teachers (something the world is only now starting to reverse course on), they are constantly influence by SM that has been proven to be insanely bad for developing minds, etc.

Thanks, Trump!

As you said, Trump's tariffs and Iran situation isn't helping, but this shit started with Covid (outside of the normal COL increase). It's also far more influenced by "the Wall St model" than our idiot politicians. Rising gas prices are rabbit shit next to "record profit every quarter or else."

For the past 3 years, wage growth has been more than COL growth every single month. Until last month.

I don't believe that even a little bit. No idea where those numbers come from and whose salaries it includes, but I know my company's annual COL increases have been behind actual COL, and we're an ESOP (not as thrifty as publicly traded companies). The rich getting richer and the middle class disappearing would seem to back me up.

I'd be curious to see those numbers subtracting all earners over $100K annually. I think that'd be fair considering the average salary is in the $64-$69K range.

They're still there, and paying $$$ for everything.

Not for long. That clock is ticking. The real question is will water shortages or AI end Vegas first.

Listen, we really don't disagree on the details. People are fucking stupid. Even the ones with average or above intellects can fall victim to behavior that puts them in a financial bind. A LOT of this is on the people, although good luck getting them to accept that. I mean, who the fuck told you to spend a couple hundred grand on a masters in Transpeople in Ancient Siberia? Why do you need a new ______ every fucking year? And so on.

I just keep repeating the same warning that it's worse out here than the traditional numbers suggest and what people show. (2) That's why I called you Marie. At some point the haves lose sight of what life is like for the majority of the population and that's when bad things happen. The 1% could legit set up the system to be stable forever with them at the top, but their greed is destroying it instead. It's the same thing that destroyed most of the mafias. They're all Icarus and they just can't help themselves from flying too high.

(1) - I wanted to share this one, but didn't know where. It fits perfectly as a sidenote. My CFO's wife works in special ed in the local big city school district. Her dumbest kid is named, "Legend". His mom is a very heavy set white woman with an older black husband. Neither works. They have 6 kids and all are in special ed. That mom sent Legend to school one day in a shirt that said, "Natural Born Genius". I asked if maybe the mom had a great sense of humor and was told no. FYI, her class isn't just about learning disabilities. Those kids stay in the normal schools. Her classes are full of kids with learning disabilities AND behavioral issues. Picture the aforementioned couple saying horrific shit to one another during a fight and that's exactly what my friend's wife hears herself be called on a daily basis by these kids. The first five minutes of Idiocracy are real AF.

(2) - One thing that I do think would shock people about some of their neighbors is how performative their lives are. Ask any cop who has done checks on fancy homes when the alarms go off and they'll tell you about mansions with no furniture, dog shit all over, etc. I could go on with millions of examples of other behaviors, but you get it.

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I saw the T1 phones news last night on TechLinked. Morons. I wouldn't trust shit with Trump's name on it. Also, isn't that like Steam's Early Access for tech? I purposely avoid all of those games just because so many are abandonware.

[Leisher]

More info I just happened to see:


So, I asked Google:

As of early 2026, nominal U.S. wages have risen significantly since 2001, though "real" wages—which account for the rising cost of living—show much more modest growth.
Nominal vs. Real Growth:
Nominal Wages: The National Average Wage Index rose from $32,921.92 in 2001 to approximately $69,846.57 by 2024, representing an increase of about 112%.
Real Wages: When adjusted for inflation, wage growth is considerably lower. Research from the Pew Research Center indicates that real wage and salary costs for civilian workers rose only about 5.3% between 2001 and 2018.Recent Trends (2006–2026):
Data from USAFacts shows that from March 2006 to March 2026, nominal average weekly wages increased by 86.5%.During that same 20-year period, real wage growth (inflation-adjusted) was just 12.9%.
Income Inequality:
Wage gains have not been distributed evenly. Between 2000 and 2018, real wages for the top 10th of earners rose by 15.7%, while those in the bottom 10th saw only a 3% increase.The Economic Policy Institute notes that low-wage workers saw their strongest real growth (13.2%) more recently, between 2019 and 2023.

[TheCatt]

s you said, Trump's tariffs and Iran situation isn't helping, but this shit started with Covid (outside of the normal COL increase). It's also far more influenced by "the Wall St model" than our idiot politicians. Rising gas prices are rabbit shit next to "record profit every quarter or else."

Inflation was moderating quite nicely before Trump fucked it all up.

I don't believe that even a little bit. No idea where those numbers come from and whose salaries it includes,

It's the official stats from our Bureau of Labor.

That's why I called you Marie.

Ohhhhhh. Marie Antoinette, took me a minute.

Wage gains have not been distributed evenly. Between 2000 and 2018, real wages for the top 10th of earners rose by 15.7%, while those in the bottom 10th saw only a 3% increase.The Economic Policy Institute notes that low-wage workers saw their strongest real growth (13.2%) more recently, between 2019 and 2023.

But, still real wage growth, which is good. Though, ideally it'd be higher across the board.

[Leisher]

Inflation was moderating quite nicely before Trump fucked it all up.

He deserves blame, but not all of it. Shit has been going downhill for non-executives since the 1970s. I think the pace has dramatically picked up since Covid. It's like the rats can sense we're approaching the iceberg.

It's the official stats from our Bureau of Labor.

It's not that I think the stats are made up, it's that I think they're not telling the correct story because they're including data that skews the results.

Ohhhhhh. Marie Antoinette, took me a minute.

I thought it was apt considering my overall point about the wealthy being Icarus.

But, still real wage growth, which is good. Though, ideally it'd be higher across the board.

The problem is the inequality, which goes to my point. The rich are getting richer, while the poors aren't and the middle class is disappearing.

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I have some thoughts on how fixing some of this and I'd be curious to hear your opinion on them, but I'm tired. I'll type it up tomorrow at work. Hoping for a light day as most people are traveling or taking a break after our annual meetings. Probably some laughs and boobs tomorrow too.

[TheCatt]

https://newsletter.platypuseconomics.co ... -by-the-us

Lol. More BS from Trump.

[Leisher]

This is as ridiculous now as it was when Biden's team was doing it.

[TheCatt]

This is as ridiculous now as it was when Biden's team was doing it.

Lol

[Leisher]

Did you forgot about all that? Back when the majority of Americans were complaining that the COL was too high, and Biden's team, and you here, was saying everything was fine and cherry picking certain items to "prove it".

That and the mass importation of illegals is what won Trump the election.

It's all in the Biden thread if you need a refresher. I believe that's where I started joking about you being a 1%er.

[TheCatt]

Did you forgot about all that? Back when the majority of Americans were complaining that the COL was too high, and Biden's team, and you here, was saying everything was fine and cherry picking certain items to "prove it".

Their data was much more representative, showing the slowing pace of overall inflation, instead of 10 items in a basket of 100

[Leisher]

Did you forgot about all that? Back when the majority of Americans were complaining that the COL was too high, and Biden's team, and you here, was saying everything was fine and cherry picking certain items to "prove it".

Their data was much more representative, showing the slowing pace of overall inflation, instead of 10 items in a basket of 100

lol

[Leisher]

LOL

He needs to move fast to save the midterms. I think that's why he's hesitating to pull the trigger on more strikes. He really wants a deal done. I think Iran knows it and it's why they're stalling.