Post-Corona Economy

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GORDON
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Post by GORDON »

Here's my conspiracy theory:

Most apartment buildings/rentals are now owned by corporations. I wonder how much they save keeping supply low, and rents high, and all they have to do is contribute to a reelection fund of a candidate who promises to deny new zoning/building permits.
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Post by Leisher »

Just saw this morning someone claiming Blackrock would own 60% of the homes in the U.S. by 2030-something.

Add onto your conspiracy theory that Blackrock wants to make ALL living places rentals.
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Thu Jul 11, 2024 10:59 am Just saw this morning someone claiming Blackrock would own 60% of the homes in the U.S. by 2030-something.

Add onto your conspiracy theory that Blackrock wants to make ALL living places rentals.
I will bet that person $10 Million that they are wrong and that never happens.

FYI - Current value of residential real estate in the us: $47,000 Billion. Blackrock's ENTIRE real estate portfolio (including commercial, REITs, etc) is $120 Billion.
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Post by GORDON »

Are there numbers for apartment buildings with 4+ units?
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Thu Jul 11, 2024 12:12 pm I will bet that person $10 Million that they are wrong and that never happens.
Honestly, I have zero doubt that if they could do it, they would. However, I agree with you that such a thing would be daunting.
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"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by TheCatt »

Last month, for the first time in four years, prices on everyday goods and services actually fell. In other words, this June was the first time since the pandemic started that we paid less for stuff compared with the previous month.
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Post by Leisher »

IMF says high interest rates aren't going away.

Catt, why can't Bob's Bank just lend money out at 1-2% less than the going rate? What is the negative for them? If they can, then doesn't the absence of that from the market hint that maybe some collusion is going on or just plain ol' greed driven incompetence?
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"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by TheCatt »

Cuz they pay for the money they are lending out, they don't actually have that much of it. If you get your $$ from the fed at 4%, or from savings accounts paying 4%, you need 5% or more on your loans to make money.
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Post by GORDON »

On the other hand, banks wanting to charge you $2k for a $12k loan administration fee before they give you the pleasure of paying 6% interest on the loan has to be some kind of profit center, as well.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2024 11:31 am Cuz they pay for the money they are lending out, they don't actually have that much of it. If you get your $$ from the fed at 4%, or from savings accounts paying 4%, you need 5% or more on your loans to make money.
That makes sense.

But they could, say, try to win a bunch of consumer business by offering lower rates for cars or college loans, yes?

Like if 5/3rd wanted to steal customers from local banks in their markets, they could say "Open an account with us and move your direct deposit here, and we'll give you half the current interest rate on your college loan or new car." They have that kind of money, yes?
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Jul 16, 2024 1:24 pm But they could, say, try to win a bunch of consumer business by offering lower rates for cars or college loans, yes?
They sometimes do things like this. The problem is how sticky (or not sticky) customers are. If I get a car loan, I don't care about any other services, that doesn't move my savings/checkings account to that provider.

But it is why they typically offer a bunch of cheap stuff to college students like fee free accounts, etc.
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Post by Leisher »

McD's sales are down.

They really think some value meals will save them, huh?

I remember earlier this year one of their VPs said something along the lines of "We've forgotten our place and made our product unaffordable to our core demographic." They probably fired that guy.

86% of renters can't afford a home.

54% think they will never be able to afford one.

Evictions in some cities are higher than pre-covid.

Everything's fine.
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"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by GORDON »

Bank: "No, you can't afford this $1400 mortgage."

Person: "Bet. I'll just keep paying my $1600 rent then."
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Post by GORDON »

What if PART of the rise in housing costs is because we're still growing by a million+ people per year, from inside and outside, new cheap housing hasn't kept up, and the cheap places are all taken?

https://www.macrotrends.net/global-metr ... rom%202020
The current population of U.S. in 2024 is 341,814,420, a 0.53% increase from 2023.
The population of U.S. in 2023 was 339,996,563, a 0.5% increase from 2022.
The population of U.S. in 2022 was 338,289,857, a 0.38% increase from 2021.
The population of U.S. in 2021 was 336,997,624, a 0.31% increase from 2020.
I don't know if those numbers are counting illegals.
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Post by Leisher »

To be fair:

$1400 gets you a $200K house, which depending on your market is either shit or a decent starter. It should also be noted that doesn't include utilities and all the other costs of owning a home. (includes taxes and insurance...per Zillow)

$1600 rent is high in our area, but I'm sure is pretty standard in others. It does include no/some/all utilities.

It should also be noted that right now interest rates are high, inventory is low, and home prices are high.

Not saying you don't have a point, but there are other factors than just the monthly payment. For example: I really, really enjoy not taking care of a yard right now.
GORDON wrote: Mon Jul 29, 2024 12:42 pm I don't know if those numbers are counting illegals.
If they don't, then Ds won't get additional seats in the House...

Jokes aside, Catt has pointed out that construction has not kept up with demand. Part of it is bad politics, part of it is environmental stuff, part of it is them putting new housing in the wrong places.
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"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by Cakedaddy »

$1 million starter homes
Interest rates are not high. They are higher than their historical record low, but not high.
rates.jpg
People just have warped expectations because of very recent events and being told they deserve more than they do.

When people complain about not being able to afford a "million dollar starter home", I want to punch them in their ovaries. And with interest rates, I feel like they are at their historical average, not high.

I will concede that housing prices are higher than what I feel like they should be. Are we in a bubble, or is there some other force pushing them higher? It started with all buying and selling stopping. Then no one wanted to be the first to start back up leading to an inventory shortage. Then trillions of dollars were poured into the economy.

Maybe when the 1% are done soaking up the trillion dollar excess, the market might correct? We need another recession. Otherwise, prices won't go back down.
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Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

No argument people have unrealistic expectations, although I don't think it warrants violence towards women... :D

Catt has made the same argument about interest rates, but it doesn't make the reality easier to swallow. And being back at the average isn't awesome when housing prices are crazy high and inventory is low.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by TheCatt »

I'm with Cake. Interest rates are at historically normal rates. You just have to erase all the QE years, those were artificially depressed rates.

At any rate, make housing easier to build, and maybe build townhomes and stuff that are more affordable
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Post by Cakedaddy »

I've been shopping and I'm find VERY affordable houses.

Brand new, two story home
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Post by Leisher »

Not kidding, I've actually been considering such a thing.

And uh, did you read the reviews? One in particular should stand out.
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