Bad Economic Predictions

[Cakedaddy]

Papa Johns has always been good around here.

[TheCatt]

January’s producer price index, which is a measure of wholesale inflation, came in hotter than expected at a 0.5% increase for the month. Economists polled by Dow Jones saw the headline reading coming in at 0.3%. Excluding food and energy prices, core PPI recorded a 0.8% gain, much more than the 0.3% rise economists anticipated.

That's a horrible number. Way to fuck the economy, Trump.

[Leisher]

The Dow hit 50K. Nothing else matters.

Seriously though, is that just a measure of prices increasing or decreasing? If so, I fully understand the concept of "this price is what it is because of the cost of business and demand, yada yada yada", but that's such bullshit. The Wall St driving everything model we're currently running negates that. Sure, a price has to reflect the cost of business, but almost all prices are completely arbitrary and inflated because corps have to make Wall St happy. Corporate greed is beyond out of control. Plus, the mad rush for AI is destroying the tech sector around the world and dramatically skyrocketing prices. Not sure how much Trump can really get blamed for that.

Don't get me wrong. I'm not exactly loving his handling of the economy or the ridiculous "50K!!!" horseshit that most people don't give a shit about. I just think some of the measures we use are based upon utopian thinking. Aren't Big Macs in some parts of CA going for $27 or something crazy? That's not cost, that's greed.

Also, on a totally different note. It's a proven fact that when a candidate of ANY race gets into office, the people of that same race see their crime stats increase. Are we seeing the same type of empowerment with scumbag business people seeing one of their own in office? I'd wager it's not nothing.

Papa Johns has always been good around here.

Or you have bad taste?

Could be the franchisee in your area isn't a cheap wad like other franchisees?

[TheCatt]

The Dow hit 50K. Nothing else matters.

And now it's down to 49k.

[Leisher]

The Dow hit 50K. Nothing else matters.

And now it's down to 49k.

I know, we did this exact back and forth on this joke the other day.

[TheCatt]

Stock futures fell Friday, putting equities on pace to add to their weekly declines, as oil prices spiked and traders reacted to an unexpected drop in new U.S. jobs data.

Futures tied to the Dow Jones Industrial Average
lost 634 points, or 1.3%. S&P 500 futures
and Nasdaq 100 futures
were down 1.3% and 1.5%, respectively.

Nonfarm payrolls fell by 92,000 in February, a sharp contrast from the downwardly revised January gain of 126,000 and far below the growth of 50,000 that economists polled by Dow Jones expected for the month. The unemployment rate also rose to 4.4% from 4.3%.

West Texas Intermediate futures
broke above $87 per barrel. International Brent crude
traded above $90 per barrel as investors weighed the impact of the U.S.-Iran war on global energy supply. The gains swelled after President Donald Trump said in a Truth Social post that there won’t be a deal to end the U.S.-Iran war without an “unconditional surrender” from the Middle Eastern country.

That's some expensive oil. And job losses. Great job, Trmp.

December’s estimated job gains of 48,000 were revised down to a loss of 17,000 jobs. The US economy has shed jobs in five out of the past nine months. And since May (the first month after President Donald Trump announced his biggest wave of tariffs), the labor market has lost 19,000 jobs, BLS data shows.

[Leisher]

Jobs are never coming back.

AI, automation, and "the Wall St." effect all mean fewer and fewer jobs.

[TheCatt]

Jobs are never coming back.

I did my part by retiring!

[TheCatt]

This is unAmerican.

[Leisher]

This is unAmerican.

100% agree, and I don't care. American corporations are constantly proving that out of control greed is not good, and is leading us to extinction. Why? All so C suite executives can pretend they don't have microdicks because their bank account is big.

People cannot afford houses.
Many cannot afford cars.
Over 50% of the country is on government assistance.
Corps just continue eliminating jobs and services in the name of making money for their execs and Wall St.
Corps constantly break the law and kill people (EX: Ford, Boeing, etc.) and so so because it's profitable.
Corps constantly work on ducking taxes.
Our food is literally poison because giving us actual ingredients cuts into profits.
Our MSM and politicians are all bought and paid for.

Our birthrate is dropping because the chemicals they use in our foods, among other things, are affecting sperm count and fertility in women. On top of that, people are avoiding having kids because they cannot afford it. Meanwhile, our stupid fucking government is there to subsidize lazy, unemployable morons to keep procreating. We are living in Idiocracy.

I learned the other day while listening to a podcast that I am not the first person to think of Capitalism with a Conscious. It's just called Conscious Capitalism and I think it should be very telling that I have a bachelors in business management and it was never mentioned once.

So, I'm officially a Conscious Capitalist and to celebrate there will be boobs today.

And just FYI, the only thing I think that needs to change is that corporations and C suite executives need to face actually harsh penalties for criminal acts. People suck. You cannot leave them to do the right thing. Some would, some wouldn't. They have to know that crossing the line is going to result in their life getting fucked. It's the only way to ensure most of them make the correct choices.

Oh, the foreigners won't comply? Yes they will or they won't do business here by law. The fucking EU is pressing their power grab morals on the rest of the world, so does China. Why the fuck can't we? We're the largest consumer market in the world. We have the power to dictate whatever we want.

End of rant. (Why doesn't the smiley face and 5 other emojis work?)

[TheCatt]

[Leisher]

Ha! Exactly.

[TheCatt]

I'm torn. I'm a capitalist optimist. I believe that capitalism can solve lots of problems. But, I also see the bad parts of capitalism, and it's hard to know what extremes they'll go to or how quickly before something terrible happens.

[Leisher]

As you have probably seen my position change over the years, I was first a staunch Capitalism supporter. I've seen too much at this point. Everything I said above is true. (And I didn't even touch how bait-n-switch is used constantly despite being illegal, blatant lying in ads used to be illegal, and about a thousand other things.)

I still believe in capitalism, and I still believe there should be billionaires if someone gets there. I just think we need to have guard rails in place to stop everything from going over a cliff.

The guard rails need to be the criminal charges for C suite decision makers and super harsh penalties for corporations, both of which I've discussed here previously. I think that would handle the vast majority of problems without hurting any legal and/or ethical way to make money.

However, there's still the Wall St. issue, and that's only come about because wealthy people playing the market are trying to get as much value as possible in the short term instead of being patient. The power they wield over the C Suite execs needs to get fixed. I don't know enough about laws to suggest a solution there.

I can recommend that C Suite exec compensation change to a base salary plus incentives tied to long term performance. You know, like all of their employees... Again, not wanting to get too into the weeds, the incentive for them to financially gain from short term profits enough that they could legit retire needs to be severed.

IPOing needs to go back to being about raising capital and not just a few people's bank accounts.

I think it'd be very interesting if ESOPs became a much bigger thing. Employee ownership of companies doesn't mean there isn't a board, but that board is far more pressed by employees over long term success as their retirement is directly tied to it. The board members are too if it's not a public company.

[TheCatt]

I think the main problem with capitalism is that it's hard to see how good it is at what it does. It's not like we have Cuba or Russia readily available to visit.

However, there's still the Wall St. issue, and that's only come about because wealthy people playing the market are trying to get as much value as possible in the short term instead of being patient. The power they wield over the C Suite execs needs to get fixed. I don't know enough about laws to suggest a solution there.

Invisible Hand. Everyone wants as much return as possible, as soon as possible, for as long as possible.

can recommend that C Suite exec compensation change to a base salary plus incentives tied to long term performance.

They largely are. Most C-suite compensation is in the $1-2million/year, due to a law that makes it non-deductible past 1 of those 2 numbers, iirc. Instead they get stock options/grants that in theory align their interests to shareholders/long term performance by having various vesting periods, etc. It's not perfect, but I struggle to think of a better way.

IPOing needs to go back to being about raising capital and not just a few people's bank accounts.

I mean, it is expressly about raising capital. Although, there are laws about how many people can invest in a private security. If you give/offer equity to employees (which I strongly support), you start running into those limits, and force companies to go public for no good reason.

but that board is far more pressed by employees over long term success as their retirement is directly tied to it. The

The board represents owners. For most companies, that's the shareholders. If employees are shareholders, they would have seats on the board, assuming enough voting power.

[TheCatt]

https://nymag.com/intelligencer/article ... brain.html

Article interviewing various wealthy people to see how their wealth impacts them, etc. But I'm putting it here because of this

In 2021, ProPublica estimated that the 25 richest Americans paid an average effective federal income-tax rate of about 3.4 percent, which prompted calls for their heads along with various structural overhauls. Cuban told me he’s skeptical of most proposed solutions, including Elizabeth Warren’s Ultra-Millionaire Tax Act. “The politicians who talk about wealth taxes haven’t thought it through,” he told me. His objection wasn’t to the idea that the wealthy should contribute more but to the practical problem of turning net worth into tax revenue. “If it’s a 5 percent tax, what happens when they sell all those assets to try to create that cash?” His preferred fix is preventative rather than punitive. Instead of taxing wealth after it’s been made, he argues for distributing ownership earlier. “If a company’s CEO gets stock options, the janitor should get them at the same ratio,” he said. “It’s far more incumbent upon the wealthy to try to figure these things out, because if we don’t, you’re going to see people protest, and it could go horribly, horribly wrong.”

Mark's approach seems aligned with at least some of Leisher's concerns. And I'd support it as well.

[Leisher]

[TheCatt]

You'd need to be paid $10,000 a week to have the same spending power as a kid working McDonalds in July of 1971

X - Doubt

The car one is a little surprising, but cars in 1971 were pieces of shit. So not that surprising. They're dramatically better + more reliable now (unless Leisher touches it).

[Leisher]

cars in 1971 were pieces of shit

Ridiculous. The Gremlin was engineering at its finest.

They're dramatically better + more reliable now (unless Leisher touches it).

I soooo want to lean against your Porsche to punish you for your insolence.

[Leisher]

Mark's approach seems aligned with at least some of Leisher's concerns. And I'd support it as well.

I missed this over the weekend. Basically, he's describing an ESOP company. Obviously, I'm in total favor of that.

I will say that one thing that would be needed, unfortunately, is a governmental agency dedicated to investigating and prosecuting C suite execs at ESOPs who take advantage of their roles.