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Why not.

Battleground states (currently) - Florida, Arizona, North Carolina, Ohio, Pennsylvania, Michigan, Wisconsin, Florida, Minnesota, Georgia.

If Biden wins FL, he would still need 1-2 of those other states.

If Trump wins FL, he still needs 4-5 of the other states.

Trump got 304 in 2016, and that seems to be his ceiling again in 2020. (270 to win)

You can play around with predictions here: https://abcnews.go.com/Politics/2020-El ... oref=promo

Are we making our official presidential predictions and then revisiting this thread later to see who was right?

Trump by a bigger margin than last time.

I think Trump wins and we see more nights of riots in big cities as people start talking about seceding and eliminating the electoral college.

Leisher wrote: Are we making our official presidential predictions and then revisiting this thread later to see who was right?

Yes, preferably with #s. We could even do 1 now, 1 in September, October, then night before election day type of thing.

Right now, I'm going to say Biden - 304.

One month away from elections. Time to update. I guess I forgot September.

August - Biden - 304.

October - I'm upgrading Biden to 315.

Prediction market's guesses gives Biden 335

I think Biden wins, but I think it'll be close. I don't think it will be the landslide people are predicting. They all remember the last election, right?

Had Trump died from C-19, I would have predicted Pence in a landslide.

I think having c19 makes him looked weaker, to his base. It might lose him some.votes.

Leisher wrote: I think Biden wins, but I think it'll be close. I don't think it will be the landslide people are predicting. They all remember the last election, right?

Had Trump died from C-19, I would have predicted Pence in a landslide.

Is anyone predicting a landslide? I've not seen anything. Like that except in the popular vote, which doesn't matter.

If trump had died, that would have been the end of the Republicans. No one gets excited about Pence.

TheCatt wrote: Is anyone predicting a landslide? I've not seen anything.

Get on Twitter.

TheCatt wrote: If trump had died, that would have been the end of the Republicans. No one gets excited about Pence.

Sure, nobody is excited about Pence, but nobody is excited about Biden either. Biden voters are just excited to vote against Trump. I think a ton of people would not show up to vote, and a ton of people who were voting against Trump would vote against Biden for most of the same reasons they were voting against Trump.

Pence was Trump's beard, so he could appeal to Christian conservatives. The End. That's all he is. Moderates don't like him, the poor fired up Republicans don't care about him. They want Trump's fire.

Leisher wrote: but nobody is excited about Biden either.

I'm sure Someone is.

Leisher wrote: Biden voters are just excited to vote against Trump

A lot of them. Trump is garbage.

TheCatt wrote: I'm sure Someone is.

Other men who think it's cool to sexually assault women?

TheCatt wrote: Trump is garbage.

Yep, and so is Biden, and Pelosi, and McConnell, and I've got hundreds more names I could type before stopping...

Leisher wrote: Yep, and so is Biden, and Pelosi, and McConnell, and I've got hundreds more names I could type before stopping...

Really? I mean, I'll go 3/4 with you...

If you're a career politician, you're 99% guaranteed to be a garbage human being. Maybe it's just the job, but it's true.

Nobody on that list even knows what a typical American is anymore. How the fuck can they give a shit about them? They all put party before country.

One thing that's weird is all the different models.

538 - 87-13 Biden
PredictIt - 65-40 Biden (yeah, it doesn't add up to 100, if we reduce it based on 105, we get) 62-38
Newstatesman - 88% Biden

I think there's a 50/50 chance Biden wins easily and a 50/50 chance Trump wins again.

I think all the polls are meaningless at this point.

Pushing "shame" as a legit political tactic has clearly backfired as people will no longer admit their preferences.

I'm at 60/40 Biden rn.

A better thing to predict might be "When will we know the winner?"

I'm going to say the next day.

Also, we could add state winners: Since these are the states that will determine the winner.
FL
GA
IA
NC
OH
TX
AZ
MI
NV
PA
WI
ME-2
NE-2