Welcome to Thunderdome

Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Apr 14, 2022 1:44 pm Mortgage rates hit 5%.

Hopefully house prices start softening/falling.

7.5 years to normality.

Leisher wrote: ↑Wed Apr 27, 2022 11:30 am A major recession is on the way.

Deutsche Bank? More like Douche Bank!

Economy shrank in Q1?

Gross domestic product unexpectedly in the first quarter, marking an abrupt reversal for an economy coming off its best performance since 1984, the Commerce Department reported Thursday.

The negative growth rate missed even the subdued Dow Jones estimate of a 1% gain for the quarter.

A plethora of factors conspired to weigh against growth during the first three months of 2022.

Rising omicron infections to start the year hampered activity across the board, while inflation surging at a level not seen since the early 1980s and the Russia invasion of Ukraine also contributed to the economic stasis.

If anyone wishes to begin worshiping me as a prescient god, I'm taking applications for disciples.

But if you're not a hot, funny woman then prolly no.

GORDON wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:37 am If anyone wishes to begins worshiping me as a prescient god, I'm taking applications for disciples.

Did you make this happen?

Americans are ditching urban areas.

They're finding bigger and cheaper housing. Duh.

This will be very interesting long term.

How will salary begin to change as employers realize that with the remote workers, they're paying them rates based upon cost of living for cities the workers don't reside within. Will salaries begin to shift to a national average rather than a regional one? (I assume it will be determined based on the lower cost for the business.)

Also, how will politics change? Short term I think you'll see a lot more D votes in rural areas, but over time those residents or their youngins will alter their views to match their new location.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 8:35 am Economy shrank in Q1?

BTW, CNN is calling this a disaster for Ds in the next election cycle. I think they have a point. Ds are basically in charge after a pandemic, so shouldn't the economy be non-stop skyrocketing? Now we have out of control inflation, the economy contracting, and the threat of nuclear war.

Leisher wrote: ↑Thu Apr 28, 2022 2:11 pm Also, how will politics change? Short term I think you'll see a lot more D votes in rural areas, but over time those residents or their youngins will alter their views to match their new location.

They better hurry up and drop the electoral college so the three American megalopolises can decide all American politics, instead of letting influence accumulate in red states.

Economy: So turbulent right now.

Job gains very good (> 400k), 10 year hit 3.10% this morning, mortgage rates closing in on 5.5%, productivity way down Q1, labor costs up, stocks down about 14% YTD.

The jobs data is the most interesting to me, the rest seems to be obvious "shut down the economy for covid"/resulting recession fallout.

I hope the "work from home" people win. There's nothing but negatives to forcing people to commute for no good reason, aside from the fallacy of "we need facetime for company culture!" nonsense, which is just actually "we aren't forward thinking, we don't trust our employees, and we need to keep our middle management classroom monitors to remain employed."

So I've been reading about a lot of people resigning from "forced back into the office" positions, into permanent WFH setups.

It makes one wonder if the only people working in the office are the ones who are substandard, don't perform, aren't in demand, and can't get the WFH job.

Used car prices dropping a little

Cox Automotive said on Friday that its Manheim Used Vehicle Value Index, which tracks prices of used vehicles sold at its U.S. wholesale auctions, declined 1% in April from March.
Wholesale vehicle prices have dropped 6.4% since the January record.
However, prices are still extremely high, and the index remains up 14% from a year ago.

Intel: chip shortages into 2024.

https://www.cnbc.com/2022/04/29/semicon ... -2024.html

The line keeps moving out.

7 years to normality.

A different article I read said chip oversupply in. 2023. Who knows

Dow still falling.

Someone on Twitter said Biden is close to having the Dow's overall number under him be a negative. No idea if that's true or not, or even why/how, but I'm sure that's not ideal...

1 - Using the dow is easy, but a bad index. Use S&P 500 with dividends reinvested. Although, if you then adjust that return for inflation...

2 - Stonks going to keep hurting a while, imho.

Cue Gordon to say "7 years".

Makes you wonder why China is so "covid zero" focused.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon May 09, 2022 12:14 pm Cue Gordon to say "7 years".

Because you yahoos initially scoffing at me saying "18-24 months tops.".