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That chart confirms what I've been thinking for a while. People got loads of free cash and bought toys with it.

There was a HUGE MASSIVE injection of free cash into the economy. Of course there's inflation!

Man I have no idea what that chart about 2019- 2020 means or why i should be mad about.

Anyway more word on 2021 profits:

I was confused about

There's not a labor shortage.

at first. But he means the corporations had the means to pay a decent wage, and instead of doing so did a PR campaign on fox news, and changed the labor laws so children can drive 18 wheelers.

Troy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 pm Man I have no idea what that chart about 2019- 2020 means or why i should be mad about.

There's nothing to be mad about, it's just showing how consumer demand changed in the pandemic (2019 vs 2020), trends that continued and exacerbated what you are seeing in 2021/2022.

That tweet is some selective data. McDonalds' annual financials. Operating income is up 13% versus 2 years ago (2021 vs 2019). The year in between (2020) was just bad.

Exxon: Net income up 15% over 3 years (2021 vs 2018), and 2019/2020 were horrible.

Starbucks net income still lower than it was in 2018.

The # of unexpected retirees matches our workforce shortage pretty well.

I agree and interesting on the labor graph.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:16 am
That tweet is some selective data. McDonalds' annual financials. Operating income is up 13% versus 2 years ago (2021 vs 2019). The year in between (2020) was just bad.

Exxon: Net income up 15% over 3 years (2021 vs 2018), and 2019/2020 were horrible.

Starbucks net income still lower than it was in 2018.

Speaking of selective data, we've been talking about profit and 2021 here and you been hitting me with 2019-2020 and INCOME in your responses.

I would argue it's not hard to show big profit increases from 2020 to 2021 when 2020 was so fucked up. 2020, profits down -37%. Profits in 2021 up 31%. Still a decrease from 2019. However, out of context, it can be used any way the person wants.

But also, there IS corporate greed. Not saying there isn't.

Troy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:18 am

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:16 am
That tweet is some selective data. McDonalds' annual financials. Operating income is up 13% versus 2 years ago (2021 vs 2019). The year in between (2020) was just bad.

Exxon: Net income up 15% over 3 years (2021 vs 2018), and 2019/2020 were horrible.

Starbucks net income still lower than it was in 2018.

Speaking of selective data, we've been talking about profit and 2021 here and you been hitting me with 2019-2020 and INCOME in your responses.

Uh... You know operating income is profit, right? Also, I am using 2018 through 2021 data (so yes, 2021 included). I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not. Operating Income = Revenues - Expenses = Profit; Now there are many measure of profit (EBIT, EBITDA, etc), but for our purposes here, they are the same. I'm basically demonstrating that profit/operating income for 2021 is basically inline with pre-pandemic numbers. It has not shockingly grown. 2020 was just a really shitty year for businesses.

Cakedaddy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 11:26 am I would argue it's not hard to show big profit increases from 2020 to 2021 when 2020 was so fucked up. 2020, profits down -37%. Profits in 2021 up 31%. Still a decrease from 2019. However, out of context, it can be used any way the person wants.

This.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:32 pm
Uh... You know operating income is profit, right? Also, I am using 2018 through 2021 data (so yes, 2021 included). I can't tell if you're being sarcastic or not.

Sorry I was reading the 3 fast, i didn't realize it wasn't just total income.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 7:16 am

Troy wrote: ↑Fri Feb 11, 2022 11:44 pm Man I have no idea what that chart about 2019- 2020 means or why i should be mad about.

There's nothing to be mad about, it's just showing how consumer demand changed in the pandemic (2019 vs 2020), trends that continued and exacerbated what you are seeing in 2021/2022.

That tweet is some selective data. McDonalds' annual financials. Operating income is up 13% versus 2 years ago (2021 vs 2019). The year in between (2020) was just bad.

Exxon: Net income up 15% over 3 years (2021 vs 2018), and 2019/2020 were horrible.

Starbucks net income still lower than it was in 2018.

Ok, so now that I understand it better... outside of Starbucks, aren't the first two (non covid) comparisons showing increases ?

I guess what I'm trying to figure out.. is now that there are back on track for profits - why announce price raises now?

And fuck. It means the corporations let us consumers eat the costs of the pandemic, and more. Back on track to being more profitable then ever. Cool.

There's really no way to make "record profits" during a time of high inflation a good look.

Troy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:38 pm Ok, so now that I understand it better... outside of Starbucks, aren't the first two (non covid) comparisons showing increases ?

They do, but 13% growth over 2 years is about 6% growth per year. For Exxon it's under 5% a year. Those #s are not dramatics, especially once you take into account the cumulative 8.75% inflation over the past 2 years, and 10.75% over the past 3 years. That 13% becomes 4.25%, and the 15% becomes 3.25% growth. Total. And Starbucks' net income drop looks even worse.

Troy wrote: ↑Sat Feb 12, 2022 12:38 pm I guess what I'm trying to figure out.. is now that there are back on track for profits - why announce price raises now?

Because they can. The single primary objective of a company is to make money for shareholders. Invisible Hand, and all of that. As I tried to show in the expenditures chart, what people are consuming/demanding has changed, and those good don't just magically appear. It take raw materials, production, supply chains, etc to get that stuff produced. Increased demand for raw materials -> higher prices. Increased demand for ship containers -> higher prices. Increased demand for truckers -> higher prices.

Here's a chart of nominal (non inflation adjusted) earnings for the S&P 500 companies. Notice the large drop in 2020 (Graph is log-scale, so the drop would look larger in linear scale).



Generally, one would expect the #s to go up with a relatively linear trendline (being log scale). The current #s are a little higher than any 20-30 year trendline, but not dramatically.

Just got back from the grocery store. Lots of bare spots on the shelves, and I'm noticing the prices of random things going WAY up. I noticed it because Walmart was advertising a 24-pack of Coke for $9, with a "Rolled Back from $10!" sign. No, I'm there frequently and a case of pop there was never $10. They are lying.

Anyway, I wish some of these brand new jobs were going into the supply chain because shit sucks and is getting suckier.

8 years to normality.

GORDON wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 2:53 pm Lots of bare spots on the shelves,

Maybe it's where you live? Or, post-Super Bowl, since an OH team was in it.

I went to the store Saturday, no issues. Wife was at different store today, also no issues.

But thing have gotten more expensive.

TheCatt wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:24 pm Maybe it's where you live?

Could be because we live near one another, but in completely different communities and my store shelves are routinely sparce and have been since last summer or so? (Not a Super Bowl thing.)

Also, I've heard this is a situation throughout the nation, so if your community is not experiencing it, you are the exception, not the rule.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:27 pm Also, I've heard this is a situation throughout the nation, so if your community is not experiencing it, you are the exception, not the rule.

Grocery shortages are certainly higher than pre-pandemic nationally, but yeah, things have been dramatically better so far this year than the past 2. Around here I haven't noticed issues in months.

We can get stuff, but maybe not the exact brand or item you want "every visit". That's an important distinction because items come and go, there's no normal consistent stocking of some things.

For example, I enjoy a Cherry-Vanilla Coke with salsa once a week or so. However, you cannot get it lately. Coke has had a massive shortage of their non-traditional flavors.

Also, Cheetos, which my kids love, have many flavors. One week certain flavors are in, while others are not, and then the next week the flavors shift.

This is the common theme throughout the store. The only items that are particularly bare in my local store are drink aisles: pops, juices, juice boxes, teas.

Leisher wrote: ↑Mon Feb 14, 2022 3:47 pm Coke has had a massive shortage of their non-traditional flavors.

Yes, niche flavors are being deprioritized to produce the more common ones.