Bad Economic Predictions

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TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Wed Sep 10, 2025 1:17 pm Catt, what's going on with this? Why is Oracle spiking?
"AI"

What garbage. They're projecting massive 3-year growth based on "AI"
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Post by Leisher »

This is at the same time that several AI companies are reporting low earnings, and the entire industry is questioning where they're going to make money in AI?

That all factually happening. In fact, AI capital is getting harder to find because investors aren't seeing returns.

So, why would this spike their stock?

Can we start a DTMan stock and when they ask us what we do, we just say "AI"?
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
TheCatt
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Leisher wrote: Thu Sep 11, 2025 9:57 am Can we start a DTMan stock and when they ask us what we do, we just say "AI"?
Lol. Hmmmmm.

Inflation up again, like 2.9% rate for CPI.
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"Housing is expensive! We need more housing! BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 7:57 am "Housing is expensive! We need more housing! BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"
Now compare crime rates and property values with those different housing types and you'll understand why "BUT NOT WHERE I LIVE!"

It has been proven over and over and over and over that moving low income folks into nice areas just brings down those nice areas. It's almost like throwing money at a problem doesn't solve it...

Diving a touch deeper, and not meaning to derail, but this is interesting. Even if the low income family is a good family with good intentions, their social circle can bring the negative results. For example, there is a wealthy township near here. The wealthiest in the state actually. It's naturally low crime. There is an apartment complex smack dab in the central portion of where most of their residents live. Historically, no issues from this complex per the local PD. A few low income families were brought in, and now the entire complex is a problem. Cops are there several times a week. What happened was the families moved in and initially, nothing changed. But later their social circles started visiting and that's where the wheels fell off. The complex lost renters, dropped rates, that social circle started moving in, and bye bye property values and safe neighborhood.

But that's a conversation for a different thread.

Credit scores continue to drop.

Americans continue to spend though.

I wonder how much of a role social media plays into our spending? Has "Keeping up with the Joneses" become more pressing as the world has shrunk?
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Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:07 am I wonder how much of a role social media plays into our spending? Has "Keeping up with the Joneses" become more pressing as the world has shrunk?
I dunno, it's just 100% not an issue for me, yet a strangely large # of people seem susceptible to it.
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Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 11:07 am But later their social circles started visiting and that's where the wheels fell off. The complex lost renters, dropped rates, that social circle started moving in, and bye bye property values and safe neighborhood.
BTW, great lessons there for the open border morons. Immigration without assimilation equals disaster.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:25 pm I dunno, it's just 100% not an issue for me, yet a strangely large # of people seem susceptible to it.
Yeah, we're out of that age range. There's a reason the 18-40 demo is the most coveted demo. They're not wise enough yet to say no to wastes of money.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:36 pm BTW, great lessons there for the open border morons. Immigration without assimilation equals disaster.
Yeah, I support immigration, but I want controlled immigration. Control the rate of immigration, and the quality of the people (which we do, but we could do better).
Leisher wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:36 pm Yeah, we're out of that age range. There's a reason the 18-40 demo is the most coveted demo. They're not wise enough yet to say no to wastes of money.
Even then I was largely immune. I think it's cuz I rarely give shits what people think I should be doing.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm Yeah, I support immigration, but I want controlled immigration. Control the rate of immigration, and the quality of the people
100% agreement.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm (which we do, but we could do better).
Well, we did until four years ago...
TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 12:38 pm I think it's cuz I rarely give shits what people think I should be doing.
Usher: "Sir, you need to have pants on in this theater."
Catt: "Hey, fuck you. I don't need your approval!"

I've never been a clothes or car guy, I don't really care about such things, but I have been tech driven my whole life. I suppose in that regard I've "Kept up with the Joneses", but is that me following my interests or society pushing me?
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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I've wanted a 911 my whole life since I was like 9. So yeah, a seed was planted, but because it's an awesome fucking car.

Clothes on the other hand, people used to wonder if I was nearly homeless due to the shabby condition of my clothes
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Tue Sep 16, 2025 3:23 pm Clothes on the other hand, people used to wonder if I was nearly homeless due to the shabby condition of my clothes
We have that in common too. I went a long time without tying my shoes. Most of my socks have holes, and my mom and my wife complain I never throw them out. I have an OSU shirt that I've owned so long that it has holes all over, but it's the most comfortable shirt I own. Used to have a Cross Colors shirt from high school that was my fav, but my wife and mom both hated that one too. It disappeared and I'm still not over it.

After typing that I realized that while my mom and wife have COMPLETELY different tastes in fashion, they both agree on what I should wear.

Women...
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Hah, basically the same for my wife and mom, though my wife is more casual than mom.

I do finally get rid of socks with holes as of about 1 year ago. Finally feel rich enough for that luxury 😁
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Post by Leisher »

Two interesting posts
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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$100M sure would be nice.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

Is that outgoing, incoming, or both? With the high tariffs, I could see both incoming and outgoing being affected. We are buying less imports, but buying more local, so things cancel out, right? Why do we care about this number?
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Cakedaddy wrote: Tue Sep 23, 2025 4:58 pm Is that outgoing, incoming, or both? With the high tariffs, I could see both incoming and outgoing being affected. We are buying less imports, but buying more local, so things cancel out, right? Why do we care about this number?
Good question...
Data within the Index includes all domestic freight modes and is derived from 36 million invoices and $36 billion in spend processed by Cass annually on behalf of its client base of hundreds of large shippers.
Guess because we like economic activity? I mean, I do.
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Post by Cakedaddy »

But again, that's just shipments. Doesn't mean things aren't being bought, it just means they aren't coming/going over seas. I need . . . Paper. So instead of buying paper from China, I'm buying it from Scranton. And instead of Scranton sending paper to France, they are selling it to me. I mean, how much of the affect that number has on things gets canceled out by people buying local instead of from a different country?
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Cakedaddy wrote: Tue Sep 23, 2025 6:20 pm But again, that's just shipments. Doesn't mean things aren't being bought, it just means they aren't coming/going over seas. I need . . . Paper. So instead of buying paper from China, I'm buying it from Scranton. And instead of Scranton sending paper to France, they are selling it to me. I mean, how much of the affect that number has on things gets canceled out by people buying local instead of from a different country?
No one's got an organic paper mill in their fucking backyard. It's still DOMESTIC freight.
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