Bad Economic Predictions

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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

Left wing environmentalists have to be pulling out their hair. :D
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

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PE doesn't have a great history in many ways.
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Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by GORDON »

Egg prices are the only thing that matters. What's the egg prices.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

TheCatt wrote: Thu Nov 07, 2024 12:02 pm Not really about the economy, but...

I find it a little weird I can order foreign money from my bank to be sent to my house, but not American money.
Robinhood also said this week that with its new Robinhood Banking offering, Gold subscribers will get private banking services with tax advice and estate planning tools, perks like access to private jet travel, five-star hotels and tickets to Coachella, and 4% interest on savings accounts. Customers will also soon be able to get cash delivered to their doorstep, saving them a trip to the ATM, though few details were provided.
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Bad Economic Predictions

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CEOs: Recession is here or on the way, bad news for everyone incoming.
Negative feelings are widespread among CEOs, who told CNBC in a flash survey that a recession is coming, job losses are likely, and American brands that sell overseas are already beginning to feel boycott-like pressure.
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Post by Leisher »

Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:40 pm Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
Well, that's never happened before, but hey, maybe this time since we have the North Korean press secretary.
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Post by TheCatt »

I've always wondered this.
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Post by Leisher »

TheCatt wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:43 pm
Leisher wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:40 pm Nah, someone will just change the definition so we don't have one!
Well, that's never happened before, but hey, maybe this time since we have the North Korean press secretary.
True, except for when it did.

We should really hire the old press secretary who was sooooo much better and more honest. :roll:
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 1:48 pm True, except for when it did.
This is 100% false. I know what you're talking about, and you are 100% wrong.
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Post by Leisher »

I figured you've been doing it for so long that you deserved some payback.

Image
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by Leisher »

Back to reality...

This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that? What do you invest in? How do you spread the rumor so you know it will affect trading? How do you cover your tracks, or is this simply not illegal because ultimately you just created a rumor and other idiots acted on it as if it were fact?

I don't know enough about the market to know if this is all possible? Although, it worked for Randolph and Mortimer.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by GORDON »

I was exposed to some theory about how if the something goes down by something percent, then some other USA debt could be immediately refinanced at a lower percentage rate and it would save like $4.5 trillion in whatever.

Clearly I had a firm grasp on what they were talking about but totally sounds legit.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by GORDON »

Leisher wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 4:11 pm Back to reality...

This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that? What do you invest in? How do you spread the rumor so you know it will affect trading? How do you cover your tracks, or is this simply not illegal because ultimately you just created a rumor and other idiots acted on it as if it were fact?

I don't know enough about the market to know if this is all possible? Although, it worked for Randolph and Mortimer.
If it's partially strong -arming peeps to renegotiate their economic policies in regards to the USA, then of course the white house would never admit to it.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Mon Apr 07, 2025 4:11 pm This does indeed look like someone manipulated the market for their own gain today, but how in the hell could they do that?
Misinformation spreads fast. You can enter/exit trades quickly, so if they did this for their own gain, the trades will be there. All trade data is recorded/sent to the SEC. If anyone still works there after DOGE.
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Post by TheCatt »

https://www.newsweek.com/trump-tariffs- ... ew-2056463

Seems like it was a legit misunderstanding of the situation.
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Post by TheCatt »

The weird thing is that the market keeps pricing in "These tariffs won't really go into effect... These tariffs won't really last..."

But they keep going into effect, lasting, and getting bigger.

The market would be down about 30-50% if they took the tariffs seriously.
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

An iPhone has about $500 of hardware in it, and retails for $1000. With 104% tariffs, it becomes $1,020 of input. Assuming Apple keeps the margin ($500) the same, it's $1,520 retail.

The current estimates for the (currently impossible to build) American iPhone? $3,500.

Forbes says my estimate is way too low
Image

But I think Forbes is using a static analysis (What could be done TODAY), whereas the $3,500 assumes a functioning supply chain in America (which would take years to develop)
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