Welcome to Thunderdome

GORDON wrote: I got an email that Universal is reopening in a couple weeks, requiring masks on all guests, and enforced social distancing. I have no idea how that will work in the long queues for the roller coasters. With 6' in between everyone, the lines will be out the front gates.

8:45 a.m.: Personal income levels have increased 10.5% due to unemployment benefits. Even with employers cutting millions of jobs during the month, personal incomes soared 10.5% in April, reflecting billions of dollars in support through government payments in the form of unemployment benefits and stimulus checks.
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US consumer spending sinks by record 13.6% in face of virus
U.S. consumer spending plunged by 13.6% in April as the viral pandemic shuttered businesses, forced millions of layoffs and sent the economy into a deep recession. Last month's spending decline was far worse than the revised 6.9% drop in March, which itself had set a record for the steepest one-month fall since 1959.
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The coronavirus crisis has Americans hoarding more money than ever before as widespread fear paralyzes consumer spending habits.

The personal savings rate hit a historic 33% in April, the U.S. Bureau of Economic Analysis said Friday. This rate — how much people save as a percentage of their disposable income — is by far the highest since the department started tracking in the 1960′s, and surpasses consumer savings during the Global Financial Crisis. April’s print is up from 12.7% in March.

TheCatt wrote: Economy may have contracted by > 50% in the 2nd quarter.

Which is certainly much higher than any prior estimates.

GORDON wrote:

TheCatt wrote: Economy may have contracted by > 50% in the 2nd quarter.

Which is certainly much higher than any prior estimates.

Contemplate the shortfall of taxes that were supposed to pay for the next deficit federal budget.

They may have to institute an electric car tax at the national level.

I'm standing by my "10 years to previous levels" prediction.

GORDON wrote: I want to include the growth we would have had, in the calculation of losses. So, it has to be 2019 levels, plus 5% growth each year.

We also lost the growth due to the Corona reaction.

GORDON wrote: I used 5% because I didn't know the actual number. Feel free to use the average growth of the last 20 years.

Those gains came after the Labor Department reported the U.S. unemployment rate came in at 13.3% for the month of May. That was much better than the 19.5% estimate. Overall employment rose by 2.5 million last month. Economists polled by Dow Jones had forecast a decline of more than 8 million jobs.

The real fun is going to begin in July and August when the businesses that are using the PPP funds run out and start failing left and right. Just from the book of businesses that I recently got assigned I'd say probably 25% of them are going to fail by fall and maybe 30% by winter. Some of the updated business plans I've been seeing are basically impossible for small companies to hit. Like, they're going to need to see the absolute best earnings they've ever had to stay open once the runway of funds they were injected with is out. And most cities aren't opened up fully. I've been saying that come the end of summer everything will be fully open whether there's a threat or not because a few hundred thousand more deaths is going to cost less than 20+% unemployment, and it's looking like I'm gonna be correct.

It's going to be pretty ugly.

GORDON wrote:

The real fun is going to begin in July and August when the businesses that are using the PPP funds run out and start failing left and right. Just from the book of businesses that I recently got assigned I'd say probably 25% of them are going to fail by fall and maybe 30% by winter. Some of the updated business plans I've been seeing are basically impossible for small companies to hit. Like, they're going to need to see the absolute best earnings they've ever had to stay open once the runway of funds they were injected with is out. And most cities aren't opened up fully. I've been saying that come the end of summer everything will be fully open whether there's a threat or not because a few hundred thousand more deaths is going to cost less than 20+% unemployment, and it's looking like I'm gonna be correct.

It's going to be pretty ugly.