Bad Economic Predictions

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Cakedaddy
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Cakedaddy »

I see. I missed that it includes domestic (even though you highlighted it). Not sure why, but there's my disconnect.
Leisher
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Post by Leisher »

This is interesting. I knew drinking was way down from previous generations, but never considered how it would impact restaurants.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by Leisher »

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Well, for one thing, a lot of kids are living off of their parents longer. I believe kids today are being/have been conditioned to believe certain things that are not good for them. In this example, a lot of kids see DoorDash as a necessity and not a luxury. They're told they must have a college degree, but it's never specified to them that it should be something that leads to a profitable career. Meanwhile, most are given no financial training in school, which has spawned a whole industry of predatory lending. No generation has ever had "The Joneses" so thrown in their face daily, which inspires spending. Many aren't taught basic skills because mom and dad (or whichever one they live with) is working and they don't have time to spend together, which means many have to pay for things they otherwise could do themselves.

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To be fair, housing prices have started to drop.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
Leisher
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

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"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Make it easier to build shit, then build it.
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Post by Leisher »

Agree, but whose fault is it that shit is hard to build?

Is it bad laws/policies? Shortage of materials/labor? Tight profit margins?
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
TheCatt
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Bad Economic Predictions

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Leisher wrote: Sat Sep 27, 2025 7:30 pm Agree, but whose fault is it that shit is hard to build?

Is it bad laws/policies? Shortage of materials/labor? Tight profit margins?
It's #1. #3 is a product of #1. But it's absolutely #1. Reading a good book about it now called Stuck: How the Privileged and the Propertied Broke the Engine of American Opportunity. tldr: Everyone's a NIMBY.

Arbitrary Lines seems of a similar vein, but have not read it.
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Cakedaddy
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Cakedaddy »

TheCatt wrote: Sat Sep 27, 2025 8:29 pm How the Privileged and the Propertied
Meh. So they build something nice and then other people want to come in a crowd it up? Maybe go build your own shit! We moved to a much more rural area, to get away from the crowds. It's getting crowded. Why do I have to move again? Maybe they should be filling some other empty land somewhere else. So ya. Not in my back yard.
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Post by Leisher »

I think there's plenty of room still in cities/suburbs. Maybe they need to rezone some areas, like that commercial zone outside every city that no businesses ever moved into.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Leisher »

Catt, does WuWei have a point about Japan? These numbers seem scary for an industry/tech that insiders say is a bubble waiting to burst and all the mega deals happening are circular.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Oct 07, 2025 9:47 am Catt, does WuWei have a point about Japan?
Kinda, not as extreme, and there was already a market reaction to this years ago when the 0-1% trade ended in 2022. (Stocks down 20% that year).
Leisher wrote: Tue Oct 07, 2025 9:47 am These numbers seem scary for an industry/tech that insiders say is a bubble waiting to burst and all the mega deals happening are circular.
Yeah, seems like super bubble time. But who knows when it pops? Right now, everyone's full gas until AGI. If AGI can even happen with current techs.
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Cakedaddy
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by Cakedaddy »

Someone on Twitter: So you are saying bearish on butthole pics?

And I'm thinking, better get in early before the butthole pic market gets flooded and even those prices go down.
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Post by Leisher »

WuWei cracks a lot of jokes, thus the butthole stuff, but I was wondering if they nailed the Japanese history stuff.
TheCatt wrote: Tue Oct 07, 2025 10:10 am Right now, everyone's full gas until AGI. If AGI can even happen with current techs.
LOTS of question marks on AGI, if we can pull it off now, and more importantly, if it's even worth it. Again, lots of questions about revenue sources.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Bad Economic Predictions

Post by TheCatt »

Leisher wrote: Tue Oct 07, 2025 11:29 am LOTS of question marks on AGI, if we can pull it off now, and more importantly, if it's even worth it. Again, lots of questions about revenue sources.
Thing is... you do it, and you WIN. You unlock all sorts of things. It's like "we're looking for pots of gold at rainbows" sure, it's hard, but if there's one...
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Post by Leisher »

Absolutely true. Of course, there could be pots of iron sulfide waiting too.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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Post by Leisher »

No lies detected.

Evolve or die.
"Happy slaves are the worst enemies of freedom." - Marie Von Ebner
"It was always the women, and above all the young ones, who were the most bigoted adherents of the Party, the swallowers of slogans, the amateur spies..." - Orwell
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