So we are within 50 year.... barring an Obamacalypse... of robots doing 95% of all jobs. People are bringing this upon themselves demanding high dollars for menial labor.
Will there be a natural balance where it will no longer benefit the corporations to robot source their labor.... putting so many humans out of work that there is no more money in the economy to buy the shit the robots are making.... or will the corporations all say FUCKIT and go 99% robot work force and keep selling shit to assholes with money and assholes overseas...
or what?
What I am trying to envision is an economy where robots are doing all the work, but are "sponsored" by a human. That human buys into the robot, which doesn't need the bathroom breaks/lunch hours/union benefits/maternity leave/etc, and the human benefits from the robot's labor, thus ensuring the human can participate in the economy. This creates a problem with a rich guy investing in 50,000 robots and thus keeping 49,999 regular people out of the economy, but that could be solved with a simple "1 robot per asshole" regulation. Rich people can still invest their money elsewhere.
Thoughts?
Humans in the Robot Economy
Uh ... wait. I remember how much work the internet and online biz was supposed to eliminate. The more bots you have, the more they break down, need to be repaired, ripped out, rebuild, upgraded, maintained, etc. Robots aren't that great at fixing other robots. And you'll still need dudes to maintain the robotic robo-fixers.
So ...
... I doubt it. What's the 5% you're thinking is non-robotic? Sales jobs alone make up more than 5% of the US work force, I'd bet. Bots can't sell shit. PR firms, lawyers, doctors, nurses, etc. Plenty of highly-skilled labour for people. Or do you really want your robo-surgeon cutting into you without a real medical guy nearby?
Edited By Malcolm on 1428441136
So ...
of robots doing 95% of all jobs
... I doubt it. What's the 5% you're thinking is non-robotic? Sales jobs alone make up more than 5% of the US work force, I'd bet. Bots can't sell shit. PR firms, lawyers, doctors, nurses, etc. Plenty of highly-skilled labour for people. Or do you really want your robo-surgeon cutting into you without a real medical guy nearby?
Edited By Malcolm on 1428441136
Diogenes of Sinope: "It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
So we are within 50 year ... of robots doing 95% of all jobs.
More like 20. Maybe 25.
Robots aren't that great at fixing other robots. And you'll still need dudes to maintain the robotic robo-fixers.
Don't count on it. General purpose robots are at the Commodore 64 level right now which is the only reason this is still true. Look at what 25 years of advancement has done to computers. In the same amount of time robots will go even further because the speed of change has increased.
Sales jobs alone make up more than 5% of the US work force, I'd bet. Bots can't sell shit. PR firms, lawyers, doctors, nurses, etc.
All these things are endangered jobs in the time frame we are talking about.
This video is worth watching on this topic.
What all this really boils down to is this question: "what does a post-scarcity economy look like?" Wide-spread use of robots means all the humans don't need to work to provide food, shelter, clothing, entertainment, etc. There's enough of all of those for everyone. The only question is how it is distributed so that people get enough of it without having to trade their time away for dollars to pay for it like we've always done.
I have no answer to that. I don't think anyone does. We can't conceive of it now anymore than a feudal farmer could conceive what the industrial economy at it's peak in the mid-1900s would be like. Although one thing you can count on: if money is still used everything will be cheap. Human labor costs are massive compared to even the best robots. Production costs will plummet.
Edited By TPRJones on 1428449483
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
Although they'd still be able to make a profit with things being cheaper, because the costs will drop. I mean, if you look at food production in terms of man power required that feudal farmer might ask the same sort of question about how people will be able to eat when no one works on farms anymore.
But ultimately I don't know what will push that new economy. That's part of what needs to be figured out. In some ways your question may not even apply to what is to come. Hard to say.
Edited By TPRJones on 1428453940
But ultimately I don't know what will push that new economy. That's part of what needs to be figured out. In some ways your question may not even apply to what is to come. Hard to say.
Edited By TPRJones on 1428453940
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
That is the EXACT article which inspired this thread.TheCatt wrote:Relevant
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
Look at what 25 years of advancement has done to computers.
Programming today is a race between software engineers striving to build bigger and better idiot-proof programs, and the Universe trying to produce bigger and better idiots. So far, the Universe is winning.
I think that can be applied to robotics as well or any hard science for that matter. The universe will always win. It's just a matter of mankind maybe or maybe not blowing itself up in its garage while ramping things up.
In the same amount of time robots will go even further because the speed of change has increased.
When your have fancier toys, people expect more tricks of them. You will then increase R&D to build better, faster, smarter bots and get a tech-focused economy and industry set.
All these things are endangered jobs in the time frame we are talking about.
Sales? I want to see someone automate selling shit to a human being, within the law. You can't just make a bribe-bot or a threat-bot. Lawyers, too. When your shit's on the line, do you want Lawyer Bot 1.0? Jobs where creativity has value aren't going to be threatened by machines any time soon from what I can tell. Granted, that eliminates a large portion, but I can't believe it's 95-99%.
Edited By Malcolm on 1428459591
Diogenes of Sinope: "It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
I think the burger flippers will be out of their jobs in 10 years. Salespeople are already on their way out with amazon, which is basically a robot. Warehouse workers are well on their way to being automated. Someone mentioned robot surgeons......... basically, yeah, I would trust them for routine things. Imagine a 15 second appendectomy. Programmers could be fairly easily automated, if any programmers would be dumb enough to write a program to put them out of a job.
Imagine everyone being able to afford free legal counsel that is a perfect lawyer.... (if you cannot afford an attorney one will be appointed to you). Fully versed in the law and able to give you 100% of its time, and never gets tired.
As I argued somewhere before, I think it would be the ditch diggers that will hang on the longest. When you're digging a hole you are making a score of decisions without even thinking about it that would really throw a robot for a loop. Hit a rock/other debris? Unexpected power/water/gas/sewer line? Can you go around or under it without breaking it? How deep is it? Is it muddy? Is the ground caving in and does it need reinforcing walls for the depth? Hard to automate that, but it will be automated, even if it is 1 human controlling 6 diggers from a command console.
Edited By GORDON on 1428463873
Imagine everyone being able to afford free legal counsel that is a perfect lawyer.... (if you cannot afford an attorney one will be appointed to you). Fully versed in the law and able to give you 100% of its time, and never gets tired.
As I argued somewhere before, I think it would be the ditch diggers that will hang on the longest. When you're digging a hole you are making a score of decisions without even thinking about it that would really throw a robot for a loop. Hit a rock/other debris? Unexpected power/water/gas/sewer line? Can you go around or under it without breaking it? How deep is it? Is it muddy? Is the ground caving in and does it need reinforcing walls for the depth? Hard to automate that, but it will be automated, even if it is 1 human controlling 6 diggers from a command console.
Edited By GORDON on 1428463873
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
I've been programming for nigh on 2 decades. You can't bot the shit I do or I would and slack all day. Too much random shit that changes too often. I encounter digital gas lines, rocks, and demonic beings from other dimensions in the system at work everyday.
If someone could make Code Bot, they'd be a gajillionaire overnight. Also, really kick ass algorithms are creative genius. Can't code that shit.
Edited By Malcolm on 1428464981
If someone could make Code Bot, they'd be a gajillionaire overnight. Also, really kick ass algorithms are creative genius. Can't code that shit.
Edited By Malcolm on 1428464981
Diogenes of Sinope: "It is not that I am mad, it is only that my head is different from yours."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
Arnold Judas Rimmer, BSC, SSC: "Better dead than smeg."
I worked at 2 multi-billion dollar companies and a couple other smaller ones as a programmer. Given the time, money, and inclination, I could have written program generators that could have taken care of 95% of their programmer needs. 95% of that shit was accountants and salesmen needing existing reports finessed slightly.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
If someone could make Code Bot, they'd be a gajillionaire overnight. Also, really kick ass algorithms are creative genius. Can't code that shit.
That's pretty much the key point of the video I linked. It's on the way.
You will then increase R&D to build better, faster, smarter bots and get a tech-focused economy and industry set.
We're about a decade away from this being something that will be automated by the creative coding bots, yes.
Sales? I want to see someone automate selling shit to a human being, within the law. You can't just make a bribe-bot or a threat-bot. Lawyers, too. When your shit's on the line, do you want Lawyer Bot 1.0?
I don't doubt that a good Sales Bot could be built that would sell to humans, but really it will just need to convince Purchasing Bot to buy it's stuff to reach the majority of the future business-to-business market. And 90% of what Lawyers do is already being automated because it's all about searching discovery and writing legal briefs. The other 10% will take a bit longer to be automated but not much longer.
And remember all these bots don't have to be perfect at what they are doing they just have to be better than people. And people aren't all that great to begin with.
"ATTENTION: Customers browsing porn must hold magazines with both hands at all times!"
Thinking more about the robot lawyers, of course the major barrier to acceptance will be the politicians, a bunch of lawyers, passing laws to make sure robot lawyers are illegal in the courtroom. I think the first instance of them will be just an app with perfect voice recognition that will feed the correct words to say to the judge, another former lawyer, into your ear. It will probably take bloodshed to get corrupt humans out of the justice system.
"Be bold, and mighty forces will come to your aid."
I would think the lawyers would be some of the last to go. And not just because of the corrupt politicians. I want a lawyer with an AI assistant so he doesn't miss anything, but I want a human making the closing arguments. It wasn't awesome knowledge of the law that got OJ off. It was the lawyers ability to tap into the human nature of the jury. To get them to feel the slight of the black man despite the preponderance of the evidence. I think an empathic human is going to have the edge over AI for a while there.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren
I kind of suspect an economic death spiral once this starts to kick in. Once any single business in a given industry is successful in transitioning to a mostly automatic or robotic business model, EVERY business in that field will have to follow suit or go under quickly. And as each field of industry goes robotic, the unemployment rate is skyrocketing.TPRJones wrote:What all this really boils down to is this question: "what does a post-scarcity economy look like?" Wide-spread use of robots means all the humans don't need to work to provide food, shelter, clothing, entertainment, etc. There's enough of all of those for everyone. The only question is how it is distributed so that people get enough of it without having to trade their time away for dollars to pay for it like we've always done.
I have no answer to that. I don't think anyone does. We can't conceive of it now anymore than a feudal farmer could conceive what the industrial economy at it's peak in the mid-1900s would be like. Although one thing you can count on: if money is still used everything will be cheap. Human labor costs are massive compared to even the best robots. Production costs will plummet.
Obviously something different would pop out the other side, but I think we're in for a long time of hurt before things level out.
"... and then I was forced to walk the Trail of Tears." - Elizabeth Warren